中国科学家发表Nature:全球贸易影响PM2.5分布和异地人群健康
2017/03/31
清华大学及北京大学领导的国际研究团队合作的研究提出了第一次全球贸易对健康影响的联合全球评估。这项研究发表在3月30日的Nature上。


每年有数百万人死于户外空气污染所引起的疾病。虽然一些研究估计了过早死亡率与当地的空气污染源的联系,但当地的空气质量可以受到从遥远的大气运输来的污染源影响。

国际贸易也促进了排放和污染的全球化。清华大学地球系统科学系张强课题组、环境学院贺克斌课题组及北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系林金泰课题组领导的国际研究团队合作的研究第一次提出了全球贸易对健康影响的联合全球评估。

数据模型分析全球贸易的对污染和死亡率的影响

这项研究发表在3月30日的Nature上,估计由于大气运输,全球228个国家的产品的生产和消费而导致的微粒污染(PM2.5)与过早的死亡率有关。这项研究的重点是死于心脏病、中风、肺癌和慢性阻塞性肺疾病的比率。

根据四个国家最先进的全球数据模型、国际研究团队估计:全球345万的过早死亡和2007年PM2.5污染有关,其中约12%(441,100与死亡发生地之外排放的污染物相关,约22%(762,400与本地生产但异地消费的商品和服务相关。

中国的排放量比世界其他地区的排放量高出两倍多,其次是印度和其他地区的排放量。研究显示2007年中国产生的PM2.5污染导致中国以外地区的64,800例的过早死亡,而西欧和美国的商品和服务消费与中国的108,600例死亡相关。

国际贸易使空气污染死亡问题更加全球化

进口产品的成本,如果是因为在它们生产的地区空气污染不那么严格地受控制而比较低的话,那么消费者的获益可能以牺牲其他地方的损失为代价。这表明,与空气污染有关的过早死亡不仅仅是一个地方问题,该项研究结果量化了空气污染是一个全球性问题的程度。

如下图所示,国际贸易通过允许生产和消费活动的物理分离,进一步使空气污染死亡问题更加全球化。在我们的全球经济中,在一个地区消耗的货物和服务可能会在其他地区产生大量的空气污染、以及相关的死亡率。打个比方在中国某地生产的产品被销往美国,而生产过程导致的大气污染使得原产地一些中老年人因呼吸道疾患而病故。这些人数被计入在美国消耗的商品相关的污染相关的死亡,在上图 g)中表现为出现在中国对应区域内的彩色点。这样,美国的消费行为就通过国际贸易影响了中国的空气质量和人群健康。


中国、西欧、美国和印度四个地区a-d)产生的污染相关的死亡人数,以及e-h)和在该地消耗的商品有关的污染在世界各地相关的死亡人数。

参考资料

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

Study reveals amount of premature deaths linked to international trade
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  • Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

    Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air qualityand health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

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